A second wave of COVID infections has overwhelmed the country’s health system

Nepal, on Monday reported over 9000 new cases, nearly reaching the 10,000 mark for the fifth time in May.

With over 400,000 cases and 5847 deaths, the country faces a COVID crisis, overwhelming hospitals and crematoriums particularly in the capital city of Kathmandu.

Data shows a sharp increase in cases and deaths between April and May. In April, 1529 new cases and 8 new deaths were reported on average, every day. These numbers have increased manifold, to 8287 and 267 respectively in May.

Nepal’s Ministry of Health and Population confirmed on Tuesday the presence of a third variant of COVID-19 in the country, which could be one of the reasons behind the surge in cases.

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97% drop in doubling time

The doubling rate measures the time it takes for cases to double. A drop in the doubling rate signals an increase in the infection rate, as it means that the cases are doubling faster.

Nepal’s doubling rate has dropped from 215 weeks to 5 weeks in just a month, marking a ~97% decline in the doubling rate.

Simultaneously, the total caseload increased by nearly 66%. The line of intersection between these rates marks the start of the second wave which reached its peak exactly one month later, in mid-May.

Nepal currently reports more daily cases per million people than India

While the cumulative cases are much lower when compared to India, Nepal currently reports more daily cases per million people.

The daily infection rate is therefore higher at 282 infections per million people compared to 188 infections per million people in India.

A cause for alarm

The absolute number of cases in Nepal may appear smaller when compared to other countries, however, for a small country with a 30 million population, the drastic increase in cases has put a huge strain on Nepal’s already frail health-care infrastructure. The country has reported significant oxygen and medical-supply shortages, and made requests for international aid.

The Nepal Mountaineering Association (NMA) on Monday requested that supplemental oxygen for climbing expeditions be returned owing to a grave shortage in oxygen for treating COVID patients.

Dependent on its neighbouring countries, India and China for vaccinations, Nepal has only been able to vaccinate 2.5% of its population. With India now placing a ban on the export of vaccines, Nepal’s vaccination drive stands compromised.