India’s IT capital, once lauded as the model city in COVID-19 management, has recently witnessed alarming spikes in new cases. There are theories galore, though none offer adequate answers.

On July 5, Bengaluru recorded its biggest single-day jump in COVID-19 cases so far. With 1,235 cases added in a day, the total number in India’s IT hub went up to 9,580. Incidentally, the state government had ordered a ‘Sunday Lockdown’ across the state starting July 5.

Data shows that over a three-day period – from July 4 to July 6 – Bengaluru saw a 15.7 percent increase in COVID-19 cases. This is alarming, especially when you compare it with corresponding numbers for the three worst-affected cities in India – Chennai (2.9 percent), Delhi (2.6 percent), and Mumbai (one percent).

As India becomes the third worst-hit nation in the world – behind the United States and Brazil – the pandemic refuses to offer any simple solutions. The Karnataka state capital is a painful reminder of the unpredictable nature of the pandemic.

Table of Contents

Unexpected turnabout

Two months after India announced its first nationwide lockdown in March, the Central Government had applauded Bengaluru’s effective model of managing the pandemic. From the use of technology to aid prompt contact tracing to the launch of fever clinics and timely sealing of areas reporting positive cases, the IT hub seemed to have cracked the COVID-19 code.

After the lockdown was eased, Bengaluru was among the first cities to resume economic activity. While the MNCs continued to work from home and schools remained shut, retail shops and malls were up and running within weeks. Soon, inter-district and interstate travel were on. And before long, the COVID-19 situation got worse.

From June 1 to June 30, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Bengaluru steadily increased from 385 to 4,555. What’s more, the recovery rate has been very low – 14.7 percent – as compared to cities like Delhi (71.7 percent), Mumbai (66.1 percent), and Chennai (62 percent).

Healthcare experts concur that contact tracing is becoming a greater challenge, with the origin of the virus remaining unknown in the majority of cases. There are discussions of Bengaluru being in the community transmission stage, although the government refutes any such inferences.

Possible reasons

One of the explanations for the surge has been the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike’s (BBMP) scaled-up random testing programme. However, data shows that the BBMP has not been conducting 7,500 random tests per day, as announced while kick-starting the programme on June 22. In the first week, it conducted 23,578 tests (daily average of 3,368 tests), with early July numbers indicating a similar sporadic trend.
Another official explanation was the closure of two COVID-testing labs – at The National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro-Sciences (NIMHANS) and the Bangalore Medical College and Research Institute (BMCRI) – after the staff tested positive for the disease last month. This created some backlog of untested swabs, accounting for the sudden spike in cases, say the officials. However, the numbers don’t quite add up.
The easing of lockdown norms and resumption of domestic travel has led to growing complacency among Bengaluru residents. Epidemiologists agree that flouting of social distancing regulations and increased movement of people have contributed to the deluge of new COVID-19 cases.
Recently, there was a viral WhatsApp video by Dr. Taha Mateen from HBS Hospital in Bengaluru. Of 44 doctors and 20 nurses on the payroll, he lamented that only five doctors and 12 nurses were on duty, working 18 hours a day. ‘Is it enough to have ventilators, oxygen cylinders, and beds at the hospital? Where are the doctors?’ asked the good doctor.